Nominal exchange rates can be forecast on ‘back of a napkin’ - ECB paper
Flexible exchange rates in advanced countries have two regularities, researchers find
A working paper published by the European Central Bank argues that the foreign exchange markets of advanced countries with flexible regimes show two statistical regularities.
In Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin, Michele Ca’ Zorzi and Michał Rubaszek examine data on the nominal exchange rates and inflation in 11 major economies, including the eurozone, the US and the UK, from 1975 to 2017. They use this data to calculate the bilateral real exchange rates between each pair of economies in
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economics
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
US rate hikes ‘lock in’ homeowners – Fed study
Tighter monetary policy raises house prices and reduces churn, research finds
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Savings, not debt, can finance EU growth – Villeroy de Galhau
Governments need “strategic pivot” to meet structural challenges, says BdF governor
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates