Polish paper presents new method for constructing fan charts
A National Bank of Poland working paper, published last week, proposes a new approach to constructing fan charts that is "a mix of judgment and statistics".
Inflation Fan Charts and Different Dimensions of Uncertainty. What if Macroeconomic Uncertainty is High?, by Halina Kowalczyk, examines the meaning of the uncertainty intervals in the fan charts used to present macroeconomic forecasts.
The author stresses the need to distinguish between uncertainty resulting from statistical model errors and
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