New research published by the International Monetary Fund simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US, and differs from previous studies in that the authors use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data.

The research assumes an information set "similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time", because such data can sometimes be significantly revised. A dataset they use for real-time German GDP data has not been used previously