Monetary policy inertia and recent Fed actions

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Economic Letter for 03-2007 describes and assesses two interpretations of recent monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve.

During 2004, 2005, and 2006, it is apparent that many of the expected interest rate paths are remarkably well aligned with the actual path for the first three or four months into the future; however, after about four months, financial markets consistently underestimated the extent of the future tightening. That is, markets

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