Riksbank paper warns forecasts often overestimate inflation
Inflation forecasts appear to be biased upwards
Sveriges Riksbank's inflation forecasts have shown larger than usual errors recently and often overestimate increases in the price level, a paper published today (May 7) by the central bank finds.
Inflation has been particularly low since 2013, writes Mårten Löf, an economist in the Riksbank's monetary policy department. "Both the Riksbank and other forecasters have overestimated inflation on several occasions over the past two-year period," he says.
The forecasting error has been "unexpectedly
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