Macroeconomics
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
‘Pooling’ models generates better output gap estimates – paper
Economists say measuring gap in real time is particularly challenging in developing countries
Trade credit can expose firms to FX risk – BIS paper
Currency borrowers partially insulate their partners from shocks, but still pass them along supply chains
Hélène Rey on cracking the code to the global financial cycle
The dollar and financial cycle move together. For the first time, economists think they know why
Close ‘huge’ gender gap to boost GDP – North Macedonia governor
Head of central bank says supporting female entrepreneurs could add $5trn-6trn to global economy
Shared EU debt not ‘essential’ for competitiveness boost – Draghi
Former ECB chief also says his proposal for €750bn of extra annual investment is “conservative”
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs
Central banks should examine demographics – Finnish governor
Rehn says sharp decrease in hours worked and increased immigration may not continue
Households biased in views of purchasing power – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says too much emphasis placed on food and energy prices’ effects on inflation
China poses ‘risk of economic coercion’ – Belgian paper
National Bank of Belgium says trade with EU has shifted to more “strategic” goods
Draghi report calls for step change in EU investment
Former ECB chief says bloc should revive securitisation and finish capital markets union to stay competitive
Hungary has been ‘off course’ since 2021 – MNB governor
Matolcsy tears into government’s economic policy
Lower-paid workers face greatest impact from AI – BIS paper
Risk of core skills being replaced, and jobs being lost, is higher for people on low incomes
Mortgage reforms, surprise rate hikes harm renters – ECB study
Researchers say young people could lose equivalent of 1% of their lifetime consumption
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
Neural networks are ‘powerful tool’ for non-linear analysis – paper
Machine learning technique highlights downsides to inflation target ranges
Falling r* a ‘mirage’ in open economies – IMF paper
Adding exchange rate to standard model significantly changes predictions, authors find
IMF warns of slowing disinflation path
Higher interest rates in advanced economies could trigger “harmful spillovers”, chief economist warns
Regional disparities wider among EU’s newer members – study
Research shows that the poorer the country, the bigger the gap between its capital and its regions
BoE economists hunt ‘driving forces’ of forecast errors
“Systematic” study of mistakes finds wage growth and expectations could have been modelled better
Full-scale war with Hezbollah is a tail-end event – Bank of Israel deputy
Andrew Abir says central bank has advised government to ensure adequate fiscal space as it expects war to last longer and revises its growth and inflation forecasts