United States
Repo and FX markets buck year-end crunch fears
Anticipations of changes to the Fed’s reverse repo programme contributed to easing balance sheet pressures
‘Inflation disagreement’ weakens US monetary policy – Fed study
Households’ inflation expectations differ from central bankers’, thus adding to post-Covid momentum
Generative AI can decipher FOMC minute topics – Fed research
Authors say technology could enhance public’s understanding of central banking
Fed stress-testing operational readiness of discount window
Experts say consultation on improved ops should be accompanied by focus on willingness to borrow
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
Trump says Powell would resign as Fed chair ‘if I told him to’
President-elect also claims tariffs would make US rich but cannot guarantee that prices will not rise
Fed’s latest Beige Book reports modest growth across US
Boston was only branch to report decreased activity since October
Central banking amid uncertainty and Trump 2.0
Deglobalisation set to challenge the central banking orthodoxy of the past 40 years
Market-based systemic risk metrics ‘crucial’ for supervisors
Paper finds measures are effective at predicting crises in the US over a long period
US rate hikes ‘lock in’ homeowners – Fed study
Tighter monetary policy raises house prices and reduces churn, research finds
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
Barr defends easing of Basel III endgame proposal
Fed’s top regulator says he will stay and finish the package, is comfortable with capital impact
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Bank Indonesia holds rates as rupiah weakens
Bank says inflationary policies under Trump would boost dollar and lead to fewer Fed rate cuts
Central banks to maintain independence despite threats – panel
Top central bankers discuss Trump, AI and why they plan to ignore IMF on rate cuts
US consumers are increasingly denied credit – NY Fed survey
Rejections for auto loans and remortgages have reached record levels
Fake it ’til you break it: the battle against disinformation
Transparency, beefed-up comms and AI are all being enlisted in central banks’ fight against falsehood
Basis swaps surge amid US repo concerns
Fed funds-versus-SOFR swap volumes nearly quadruple as declining Fed reserves impact funding rates
Book notes: The bankers’ new clothes, second edition, by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig
A disjointed book where ‘I told you so’ new chapters add little to the excellent original analysis
‘I wish we were long bitcoin’ – central bankers on Trump 2.0
Reserve managers at Central Banking Autumn Meetings warn of higher signal-to-noise ratio