The Americas
Trump’s tariff threats fuel corporate FX hedging revamp
Treasurers mull options and longer-dated hedges in face of mixed signals on extent and timing of measures
Central banks keep ISO 31000 and COSO-ERM as main approaches
Principles tend to vary slightly by central banks’ risk management philosophies
Central banks typically employ detailed business continuity plans
But institutional risk appetite is less commonly included, especially in Europe
One-fifth of central banks lack defined risk tolerance and strategy
But majority of respondents apply risk management principles to policies and processes
Adoption of governance, risk and compliance systems still partial
Respondents mention main service providers and plans to upgrade
Decentralised risk teams less likely to have chief risk officers
CROs are also less common at Asia-Pacific and European central banks
Credit and counterparty risk gains relevance as most covered risk
But central banks’ top risks vary by geographical regions
Centralised risk teams tend to have more sub-units
Size of central banks with climate change risk unit steadies at 12%
Financial and op risk divisions maintain largest staff
Upper-middle income nations tend to have different staffing priorities
Share of economics departments with data unit rises
Web scraping and administrative data are top alternative sources for economists
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Working group minutes: reserve managers chafe at constraints
Officials at several central banks say limited investment universe restricts room for manoeuvre
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents