Federal Reserve System
Banknotes: January to March 2025
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Default levels do not explain high US credit card rates – study
NY Fed paper shows levels of interest charged far exceed those for other loans
Bowman’s ascent sparks office intrigue at the Fed
Trump’s vice-chair for supervision pick is said to have a prickly relationship with Powell
Can Bessent lower 10-year yields? Investors have their doubts
Unconventional tools won’t sway bond markets, say buy-siders, with yields as likely to go higher as lower
Effects of ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’ are ‘highly speculative’ – BdF deputy
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré casts doubt on proposed collaboration to deliberately devalue dollar
Fed’s NBFI scenario may be more use than CCAR – experts
Main severely adverse scenario does not capture contagion risks from any squeeze on non-banks
FOMC holds rates amid uncertainty and stagflation risks
Fed chair Jay Powell says inertia also a factor as committee opts for caution
US stagflation risk is significant and rising, experts say
Path of tariffs will largely determine level of risk, academics tell Central Banking
US dollar dominance: beyond the ‘exorbitant privilege’
Biagio Bossone argues that dollar ‘seigniorage’ extends into the very structure of global finance and its ‘exorbitant privilege’ is worth up to $804 billion annually
NY Fed credit survey shows consumers are strapped
Study finds more people are having applications rejected and expect loans to be harder to secure
Trump taps Bowman to become Fed’s vice-chair for supervision
Designated chief regulator has opposed Basel III endgame and pushed for lighter capital rules
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
US homes not adequately insured against disasters – report
Philly Fed study says most households do not have coverage to rebuild following catastrophic damage
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
‘Trump slump’ hedges rise on rate cut fears
One dealer notes five-fold increase in number of clients hedging against possibility of faster easing
Credit delinquency rise may be due to home priorities – study
Consumers choosing to repay auto and home loans rather than credit cards, say authors
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Fed researcher unveils card fraud simulation model
Author says paucity of data means simulation is increasingly important in study of payment fraud
Trust in Fed leads to lower inflation expectations – study
Political alignment shapes perceptions of central bank and views on economic outlook, NBER paper finds