It is an occupational hazard. Central bankers believe, with a mix of wishful thinking and empirical evidence, that their own credibility is critical to the success of monetary policy.¹ There is little room, then, for exhibiting self-doubt, with a tendency for new policies to be grasped with gusto and the old to be quickly discarded. It is not that critical thinking is actively discouraged – central bankers are a conscientious lot. But in practice it is disincentivised. An idea or analysis that