Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
Economists looking for a historical parallel to the current inflationary surge should look back further than the 1970s, according to a new working paper.
Published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research, the paper uses a semi-structural model to identify the permanent component of the current inflationary surge.
Authors Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe find this component is much smaller when estimated over a long horizon – 1900–2021 – than if only the period from 1955–2021 is
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