Macroeconomics
Evergrande tests China’s commitment to deleveraging
Chinese officials are having to choose between near-term growth and long-term economic health
US PCE inflation rises to 4.3%
Fed’s preferred rate reaches new high in August, but “trimmed” measure steady at 2%
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Foreign vulnerabilities can affect domestic growth – BoE paper
Study of ‘GDP-at-risk’ shows financial factors overseas can lead to worse outcomes locally
MMT and the challenge of fiscal monetary co-ordination
Sayuri Shirai contrasts modern monetary theory with regimes of monetary or fiscal dominance
No IMF bias towards ‘excessive austerity’, report finds
But Independent Evaluation Office says fund has been too optimistic in its forecasts
Demand shocks can have permanent impact on US economy – Fed paper
Authors find hysteresis is an important driver of longer-term growth trend in US
Bank Indonesia tells banks to provide financing to SMEs
As much as 30% of banks’ loan books will need to be directed to small businesses
PBoC to provide 300 billion yuan to SMEs
State Council calls on central bank to step in as Delta variant shows signs of denting growth
Canada records surprise GDP decline
Second-quarter figures show 0.3% contraction, which may affect taper and monetary policy
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Canada records highest inflation since 2011
House prices help drive figures up, as inflation becomes campaign issue in election season
Bank of Thailand calls for additional $30 billion borrowing
Debt totalled 54% of GDP by June, putting pressure on the 60% ceiling
Global economy faces ‘decisive moment’ – IMF’s Gaspar and Gopinath
Policy-makers have “window of opportunity” to help those falling behind in Covid-19 recovery
BoE’s Vlieghe: central bankers must speak up about economic fragility
Outgoing MPC member says impact of debt and inequality is “stark”, but goes beyond central banking
Inflation fears are ‘overstated’ – BIS research
‘Little evidence’ of the forces that normally lead to persistent inflation, bulletin article says
Unemployment has non-linear relationship to inflation – Fed paper
Authors say their findings could be relevant to debates over inflation targets
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
IMF agrees with Fed on ‘transitory’ inflation
Georgieva says recent inflation spike likely to pass; supports Biden’s fiscal plans
US unemployment rate stable at 5.9%
Little sign of ‘substantial further progress’ FOMC wants to see before taper
BIS annual report: ‘disaster averted’ but world ‘not out of the woods’
Report weighs up three scenarios for “pandexit”, none of them without drawbacks
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues