Macroeconomics
Short-sale disclosure rules can distort securities prices, Bundesbank paper says
European Union transparency conditions may have led to distortions in the prices of German securities by deterring short-sellers, discussion paper argues
Inflation expectations shaped by different forces in short and long term – BoE research
UK households are influenced by perceptions of actual inflation, but other factors grow in importance in the longer run, quarterly bulletin article finds
Iceland’s new macroeconomic council faces up to wage challenges
Collaboration between government, central bank and labour market groups aims to bring bouts of rapid wage growth under control and better co-ordinate policy
IMF paper explores impact of financial development on wealth dispersion
Authors focus on China between 1995 and 2002; suggest lower access barriers and a deeper market can “greatly improve” welfare
US Phillips Curve “not broken” – IMF paper
Working paper finds economic behaviour since the crisis reflects different sources of disturbances, and not a change in the dynamics of the Phillips curve
Lagarde encouraged Paris Club to broaden membership as South Korea joins
South Korea becomes 21st member of creditor country group; speaking at its 60th anniversary Lagarde stresses the value of expanding further
Asian central banks shift bond funds towards local currency debt
Eleven East Asia-Pacific central banks agree to close fund for buying US dollar debt issued in the region and invest the money in local currency debt instead
Dombrovskis replaces Hill in leading work on Capital Markets Union
Britain’s European finance commissioner resigns following referendum to be replaced by former Latvian PM; political timetable likely to delay further integration moves, analyst says
Central banks offer reassurance as UK votes to leave EU
Mark Carney stresses UK authorities are “well prepared” for the outcome, as central banks across globe pledge liquidity if needed; narrow vote to leave sees David Cameron announce resignation
SNB paper challenges idea that capital flows drive Swiss franc value
Empirical study finds no strong relationship between capital flows and the level of the franc, meshing with earlier literature showing asset prices can move sharply without major portfolio shifts
BoJ research turns to new data set to study wage-price links
Research sheds light on factors that may push up wage expectations, drawing on a unique survey of Japanese expectations
Dombret flags demographic concerns in Tokyo speech
Bundesbank board member draws parallel between Germany and Japan as he notes risks to potential growth rate; stresses need for “growth-enhancing measures”
Bank of Greece pushes for government reforms and debt relief
Monetary policy report urges government to pass reforms, but criticises creditor's focus on tax increases and 3.5% primary surplus; expects growth to pick up to –0.3% by year-end
IMF paper points to short-term benefits of product market reforms
Authors find product market reforms can deliver benefits in short term as well as long, though effects may be curtailed where credit is constrained
Low rates driving up housing share of income – RBA paper
Share of aggregate US income from capital is on the rise, and housing accounts for a large portion; low nominal rates explain strong demand for housing, economist argues
Dollar strength behind breakdown in economic paradigm, says Shin
BIS head of research points to failure of covered interest parity post-2008, with the strength of the US dollar correlated with the size of market anomalies
Menon encourages Chinese companies to explore offshore
Managing director of MAS considers connectivity between China and South-east Asia; suggests corporates recycle capital through securitisation
State money and bank money: lifting the fog around QE
Steve Hanke says economists are missing important details by focusing on interest rates, rather than the money supply
Helicopter money still contentious as Borio enters debate
Article by Claudio Borio and others claims helicopter money means giving up on monetary policy for ever, but economists such as Adair Turner and John Muellbauer question the result
Book notes: A few hares to chase, by Alan Bollard
The former Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor has produced a interesting account of the life of engineer-turned-economist Bill Phillips
BIS paper: money growth-inflation link weakens, credit link grows
Authors find money growth is less important in driving price changes, but credit growth is becoming a more critical factor in financial crises
Trinidad and Tobago governor predicts GDP contraction of up to 2.5%
Contraction of 2.5% expected amid falling oil prices; co-ordinated fiscal, monetary and structural reforms would increase recovery's chance of success, Hilaire says
Slow growth need not be the ‘new normal’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors give reasons for optimism about the future of US economic growth, and outline policies that could support it, although most are outside the control of the central bank
Greek deal unlocks funds but delays debt relief
Deal allows possibility of future debt relief but drops IMF’s stronger demands; pushes most difficult decisions back