Interest rates
Yield curve inversion still tends to signal trouble ahead – Fed economists
The term spread has a “strikingly accurate record” for forecasting recessions, and this time looks to be no different, say researchers
Tunisia raises rates by 75bp to tackle inflation
First hike under new governor comes as prices rose year-on-year by 7.1% in February
Low rates likely to persist in global economy, Riksbank’s Ingves says
Inflationary pressures remain weak, governor says; economic growth is a prerequisite for higher price pressures
Financial regulation powers pose new threats to central banks – Kganyago
Emerging markets are better equipped to deal with capital flows, Sarb governor says
NY Fed paper studies when government should issue safe assets
Model implies only under certain situations should the government issue new debt; changing inflation target might be superior
Norway lowers inflation target and changes policy mandate
The new mandate emphasises the need for high employment and financial stability
Indonesian deputy nominated for governor’s role
Perry Warjiyo needs confirmation by lawmakers
Fed’s Powell expects strong US growth
Robust labour market likely to support income and consumer spending rises, Fed chair says
Philippines advances with policy implementation revamp
The Central Bank of the Philippines is looking to cut its reliance on reserve requirements and move towards an interest rate corridor
Fed paper examines financial spillovers of US monetary policy
Authors find that conventional and unconventional policies create different spillover effects
Fed anticipates higher growth and tighter policy
Policymakers consider the latest economic data warrants the continuation of gradual policy normalisation
MAS aims to move OTC derivatives trading to ‘organised market’
As much as 80% of interest rate swaps in Singapore would have to be executed on exchanges or other centralised trading facilities
Italian consumer lending more risk-priced post-2008 – paper
Institutions tightened lending to consumers based on household factors
Philadelphia Fed’s Harker forecasts only two hikes in 2018
Despite stronger growth and lower unemployment, inflation remains too weak
Explicit wording sought to jolt market expectations, says Carney
Bank of England governor says committee was unusually explicit ahead of November hike to encourage markets to wake up to its signals
A changing of the guard
Risks emerge amid leadership changes at the US Federal Reserve Board and the People’s Bank of China
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon by using a shadow rate term structure model
NY Fed paper measures global capital flow pressures
The authors’ method allows them to estimate how sensitive countries are to changes in global risk aversion, as well as overcoming problems with capital flow data
Canada effecting a cautious normalisation – deputy governor
Uncertainties related to trade, high debt levels and slower growth may delay new rate hikes
Higher inflation in the US pushes up yields
The headline consumer price index rose by 2.1% year on year
Implementing a holistic and dynamic risk budget
The National Bank of Denmark has implemented a dynamic risk budget that takes the bank’s unavoidable policy risks as the point of departure. The new approach has led to a reassessment of investment exposures and how they are rebalanced over time and…
Riksbank leaves rates unchanged as inflation remains contained
Deputy governor Henry Ohlsson dissented and advocated raising rates by 25 basis points
Mester advocates continuing 2017 rate path this year
Cleveland Fed president says the current policy balances inflation and growth risks
Powell faces balancing act as normalisation proceeds
New Fed chair likely to continue policy normalisation even as market volatility tests his resolve