Interest rates
Releases of monetary data aid market rate expectations – paper
Working paper published by ECB shows releases of monetary data is helpful to financial markets in forming rate expectations
Monetary easing ‘likely’ required over summer, says Carney
Governor expects easing in wake of UK vote to leave the EU; announces additional weekly liquidity operations as part of response, but acknowledges limits to what BoE can achieve
Reserve Bank of Malawi to improve monetary policy architecture
Bank moves towards fully fledged inflation targeting, embracing interest rate-based framework; IMF staff note importance of maintaining tight monetary policy
Bank of Israel sees ‘Brexit’ increasing risks to outlook
Monetary committee warns it is too early to tell whether short-term effect on financial markets has run its course; Flug stresses both central bank and finance ministry “keeping close watch”
BoJ paper models impact of guidance on expectations
Announcing forward guidance before reaching the effective lower bound can help to “positively influence” inflation and output growth, the author finds
National Reserve Bank of Tonga considering short-term policy rate, IMF says
Fund staff encourage Tonga to reform its monetary policy framework; suggest introducing new policy rate and inflation target range more appropriate to historic and current levels
Governor: Philippines central bank to keep ‘steady hand’ on monetary policy
Philippines central bank to keep watchful eye on uncertainty surrounding advanced economies’ policy prospects; inflation environment remains ‘manageable’
Fed should prepare to communicate inflation overshoot – IMF
IMF urges Fed to continue on “very gradual” path in raising benchmark rate; central bank should tolerate inflation overshoot to stop expectations drifting down
IMF paper explores transmission of volatility along yield curve
Working paper finds differences in transmission between countries with established inflation-targeting frameworks and those in transition
Yellen says July hike ‘not impossible’ as Fed holds
Fed keeps policy unchanged as widely anticipated; expected path of interest rate hikes becomes more gradual while the long-run level is revised down again
Dombret flags demographic concerns in Tokyo speech
Bundesbank board member draws parallel between Germany and Japan as he notes risks to potential growth rate; stresses need for “growth-enhancing measures”
Governor cites stabilising inflation as Bank of Uganda cuts
Bank of Uganda cuts policy rate to 15% on back of inflation outlook; Tumusiime-Mutebile says central bank wants to have an "impact" on the state of economy where possible
Promoting China’s financial liberalisation agenda
Increased risks are an inevitable upshot of greater innovation and disruption in the banking sector, but they can be mitigated, writes Zhang Liqing of the Central University of Finance and Economics
Low rates driving up housing share of income – RBA paper
Share of aggregate US income from capital is on the rise, and housing accounts for a large portion; low nominal rates explain strong demand for housing, economist argues
No room for easing in Tombini’s final meeting
Committee leaves key rate at 14.25%; analysts believe calmer political environment will shape monetary policy stance in future rather than change in governor
House prices complicate outlook as RBNZ holds
Central bank caught between strong NZ dollar and rising risks in the housing market; keeps rates on hold but further cut still remains in forecasts
Kocherlakota: Fed should talk openly about negative rates
Former Minneapolis Fed president says central bank should talk about its policy options in a recession ahead of time, to avoid sending a bad signal if they have to be used
Rajan sidesteps question on RBI future
Reserve Bank of India governor says decision on second term will be reached after discussion with government; RBI holds policy rate at 6.5% after inflation surprise
Yellen upbeat but concerned by weak jobs data
Janet Yellen expects continued progress to Fed’s objectives; says latest labour market report is “concerning” but warns against reading too much into it
Hitting inflation targets may be harder now, thanks to lower bound – paper
Working paper warns of potential for lower bound episodes to affect expectations of when they will occur in future, something that can act as a drag on inflation in the present
State money and bank money: lifting the fog around QE
Steve Hanke says economists are missing important details by focusing on interest rates, rather than the money supply
US jobs report puts Fed hike expectations on ice
Small increase in non-farm payrolls leads market to all but write off prospect of a rate hike later this month; Lael Brainard and Eric Rosengren keen to see more data
Tiberius’s experiences with zero interest rates in 33 AD
Can the European Central Bank learn lessons from the use of zero interest rates by the Romans in 33 AD as they grappled with their own fiscal and monetary crisis?
Pursuing stable rates may create instability, Norges Bank paper finds
Preference among central bankers to keep rates at “normal” levels may prove time-inconsistent, researchers warn