Economics
BoJ’s Nakaso sees analytical challenge in gauging reforms
Policy board member says the design of standard models may be one reason why it is hard to tell whether Japan needs demand- or supply-side reform
Financial variables improve output gap estimates, BoE paper finds
Adding financial variables to estimates of the output gap can allow policy-makers to spot trouble on the horizon more easily, authors say
Research considers impact of fiscal consolidation on debt-to-GDP ratio
Working paper published by ECB finds fiscal consolidation conducted through a revenue increase, rather than a spending cut, is ‘self-defeating austerity’
Research considers why macroeconomic announcements impact asset prices
A working paper published by the ECB weighs the ‘intrinsic value’ of macroeconomic news announcements in the US, finding timing is crucial to maintaining it
Caruana marks out dangerous nexus between debt, oil and the US dollar
BIS chief points to interactions of dollar borrowing by emerging markets, US rate hikes and the oil price, as latest data suggests world may be balanced on the edge of a drop in global liquidity
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
Kansas Fed researchers bridge gap between forward guidance data and theory
Working paper identifies empirical effects of guidance at the zero lower bound, before finding a standard model of price rigidity largely replicates the results
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Issing says eurozone status quo is in danger
Former ECB board member says Europe’s monetary union is still plagued by problems caused by absence of political integration, which could pull the eurozone apart
BIS stats show further retreat in global banking flows
Falling claims on China drive bulk of overall reduction in cross-border claims, but pace of decline slows compared with previous quarter
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Debelle highlights ‘rich potential’ in regulatory data
Regulatory reporting is still in its infancy, but already useful trends are starting to emerge, the RBA assistant governor says
Modern central banks need big data strategy, Riksbank economists say
Central banks need to adapt to growing data volumes, but the organisational changes required could help departments work together more closely, economists say
Bean calls for overhaul of UK statistics
Report dissecting UK statistics production calls for national statistics office to become more agile, make use of new forms of data, and tackle shortcomings
Presentation of big data key to inspiring research, academic argues
New York University professor says financial regulators need to learn from large-scale scientific projects and online retailers to encourage ‘research communities’
The big data revolution and central banking
Central banks are increasingly turning their attention to the challenge of analysing very large datasets. But is ‘big data’ as revolutionary as some claim?