Economics
IMF paper seeks to quantify debt bias
Tax systems create “pervasive” debt bias, authors find, arguing for policy action before the problem worsens
Haldane turns to other disciplines to solve big economic questions
BoE chief economist calls for an interdisciplinary approach to tackling the problems economics faces in understanding complex systems; warns of shortcomings in micro-founded models
Fed research proposes micro-founded approach to term structure modelling
Economists build structural New Keynesian model in contrast to the statistical approaches in much of the available literature, identifying key factors shaping term premiums
IMF lifts censure on Argentinian inflation
Inflation and GDP figures now in line with international standards, fund acknowledges; Lagarde praises Argentinian authority’s efforts to reform statistical agency
Unit root methods can help detect financial bubbles, Finnish paper argues
Researchers apply tool to data from 15 European countries
Visco hits out at lack of ‘cohesion’ among Europe’s political leaders
ECB governing council member calls for targeted structural reforms in the euro area; says a euro area finance minister must have fiscal capability and not be “another referee”
RBA paper finds it is hard to pinpoint US productivity slowdowns
Break in productivity growth trend in US appears to have happened in early 1970s, although beliefs took three decades to fully adjust, authors find
The data deluge
Big data can help economists overcome weak theories and improve our knowledge, but it also comes with with larger pitfalls
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
Harnessing growing data volumes: The St Louis Fed
Huge demand for macroeconomic data that is easily accessible, international and granular is driving the rise of this global data hub. Daniel Hinge meets the Fred team
SNB paper models ‘sticky consumption’ in Switzerland
Assuming consumption habits are slow to change helps produce more robust results than other methods, author finds
BoE paper takes DSGE approach to deflation probabilities
Comparing simulations using a DSGE model estimated on different market-based measures of deflation probability helps to pick out causality, researchers say
Data as a critical factor for central banks
Central banks must industrialise data-handling processes to deliver better decision-making, says Maciej Piechocki of BearingPoint
Fischer examines growth dilemma
Fed vice-chairman says behaviour of inflation and output as economy normalises may provide some answers
Big data in central banking: 2016 survey
Results and analysis of a survey examining how central banks view big data and data governance in their institutions
Bank of Namibia revises growth forecasts
Latest economic outlook warns lower production from the mining sector will have an impact on GDP levels for this year, but growth is expected to pick up in 2017
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
Barro and Summers wrestle with productivity puzzle
Veteran economists seek to offer explanations and policy prescriptions for strong employment and weak growth in the US and elsewhere
ECB paper assesses influence of international linkages on length and severity of recession
Credit growth combined with other vulnerabilities is important, authors argue
More research needed on exchange rate pass-through, ECB article says
Research on effects of different shocks on inflation “still in an incipient phase”
Riksbank paper shows importance of modelling bank costs
Models should not assume financial intermediation is free, authors say, showing banks can reduce aggregate welfare in some cases
Oil price rises and US GDP growth have ‘complex relationship’ – paper
Paper studies interaction of oil price and economic growth in US from 1875 to 2016
Hedging demand can cause covered interest parity violations – BIS paper
US dollar forward hedging demand can cause covered interest parity to fail even when markets are calm, authors say, helping explain this post-2012 anomaly
AnaCredit: banking with (pretty) big data
The supranational credit database in Europe will help policy-makers and banks assess cross-border risk when it goes live in 2018, writes Aurel Schubert, director-general of the European Central Bank’s statistics department