Economics
Global value chains increasingly driving global inflation – BIS paper
Growth of global value chains limits the importance of domestic factors in creating inflation, complicating the jobs of central banks
BoE paper tackles big data on Swiss franc de-pegging
Trade repository data sheds light on liquidity problems and market fragmentation around the removal of the SNB’s Swiss franc floor in January 2015
Nigerian central bank details funding for farmers
Programme is latest to aim at boosting production of import substitutes
Terms-of-trade shocks affect house price fluctuations – paper
Bank of Canada research shows terms of trade shocks explain large percentage of variance in house price growth; most of the variation associated with changes in real import prices, authors say
Haldane hopeful for ‘rebirth’ of economics
BoE chief economist believes crisis for the profession could lead to a break with past thinking; offers solutions to productivity problems
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says
Palestine Monetary Authority forecasts slowdown amid ‘political impasse’
Authority sees likelihood of “slackening trend” of growth in coming years as Gaza Strip “siege” continues and restrictions affect the West Bank
2016: The year in review
The past year was characterised by dramatic political events, and central banks did not always manage to stay above the fray; we look back at some of the biggest stories
Paper uses Swedish refugee data to assess financial literacy
Authors say the randomly determined placement of refugees in Sweden provides a handy natural experiment on how financial literacy can spread
BIS’s Caruana: fiscal space is ‘slippery’
Fiscal authorities should not overestimate the available room for manoeuvre, as less obvious factors may pose constraints, BIS chief says
BoE article sees benefits to agent-based modelling
“Bottom-up” approach is complementary to models that are already widely used; the Bank of England has created new models for both housing and corporate bond markets
IMF paper shows US monetary conditions impact EM leverage
Impact is more pronounced for firms that are dependent on external financing, authors find; sample shows financial conditions have the ability to influence borrowing constraints
Greek negotiations turn acrimonious amid debt relief freeze
ESM freezes debt relief measures for Greece, accusing government of breaking spending promises; European Commission’s Moscovici hits back at IMF criticism
Non-linear shocks create asymmetric policy impacts – paper
Bank of England working paper shows a shock to mortgage spreads has more of an impact on the real economy during periods of recession, with implications for policy
Netherlands paper exposes differing capital flows across EMU
Paper examines the mechanism behind divergence of north and south eurozone members, as capital flows caused external imbalances to move in opposite directions
Central banks working to overhaul data-sharing
IFC report finds many central banks are seeking ways to better share micro data, both internally and externally
IMF paper links Chinese growth to ‘drastic increase’ in inequality
Rapid growth in recent decades linked to rising economic inequality, with consumption and income inequality co-moving closely
Updated Bank of Mauritius survey questions people on inflation causes
Latest survey shows Mauritian stakeholders are wary of external factors; exchange rate was viewed as second most important factor under new question format
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
IMF officials say they want less austerity for Greece, not more
Fund and European creditors still disagree on design of Greek programme, as IMF says fiscal targets must be realistic
Icelandic paper finds evidence of rising natural rate
Authors attempt the notoriously difficult process of estimating the natural rate, using various models; rate appears to be on the rise
BIS economists model benefits of leaning against the wind
Endogenous model of financial crises points to benefits of using monetary policy to lean against financial imbalances, in contrast to many other studies
BoE paper drops rational expectations to solve unemployment puzzles
Replacing rational expectations with adaptive learning helps fit the standard theory of unemployment to the data, economists find
IMF to tackle effects of globalisation in 2017
Fund says it will focus on bringing the benefits of globalisation and technology to a wider section of society, amid a populist backlash against openness