Economics
Pass-through varies across countries and time – BoE paper
Kristin Forbes and co-authors study the shocks and structural factors that help explain variations in the exchange rate’s impact on inflation
Bank of Canada broadening intelligence gathering with new survey
Systemic risk survey will be launched next year, says deputy governor, emphasising market intelligence can never provide a “perfectly complete picture”
Household balance sheet adjustment a long process – Danish study
Research into patterns of consumption and saving before and after the 2008 crisis shows deleveraging can take a long time; consumption impact of rate hike is “modest”
New Keynesian DGSE models need financial spillover channels – ECB paper
Models without powerful financial spillover channels will be “misleading”- researchers
Pakistan growth hits decade high – SBP report
Central bank says high growth, low inflation and solid investment are nevertheless overshadowed by falling exports, which have impacted reserves
Italian paper looks at effects of crisis on interbank network
Integration fell in 2007–8 but rose after ECB adopted unconventional policy, paper finds
Survey data can help with modelling expectations – BoJ paper
Discussion paper outlines method of incorporating survey data as a proxy for expectations, with “promising” results for inflation modelling in the US and Japan
‘Multiple lending’ may cause contagion during stress – paper
Researchers say multiple lending may ease liquidity shocks in normal conditions, however
Norges Bank study: regional network is supplying useful information
Central bank’s network of contacts is able to deliver better information on growth than other sources, report finds
Little evidence to support ‘global slack’ thesis, ECB paper argues
Researchers say global spare capacity is not increasing as an influence on eurozone inflation
BoE economists criticise DSGE inflation modelling
Team including MPC member Kristin Forbes criticises structural modelling approaches for failing to properly account for trend inflation
BIS comes to the defence of globalisation
Increasing trade and financial integration have had a “profoundly positive” impact on people’s lives, but do bring drawbacks too; the correct response is not a wholesale rollback, says Jaime Caruana
Some outflows from China may have been ‘disguised’ – Fed paper
China’s success reducing current account surplus may partly have been due to financial outflows disguised as “travel”, Fed economist finds
Model looks at outbreak of ‘fire sales’
Higher capital ratios may aggravate financial contagion, the authors say
No ‘Taylor rule’ without Meltzer’s support
John Taylor says he would “likely have done other things” if not encouraged by Allan Meltzer to develop the eponymous rule
Making the rules and breaking the mould (Allan Meltzer: 1928–2017)
John Taylor writes about the extraordinary life of a pioneering economist whose lifelong work defied traditional rules – but one who strongly advocated them for central banks
BIS paper: forces driving global liquidity are shifting
Paper examines factors behind changing patterns of global liquidity, finding improved prudential standards have cut volatility