Economics
Philadelphia Fed launches new research institute
Research body is tasked with better understanding consumer behaviour, particularly in relation to financial markets
BoE paper adds time-varying parameters to DSGE model
Method allows parameters to shift over time as the structure of the economy changes, yielding improvements to forecasting
More power for US politicians reduces credit in their states, paper finds
Gains in power for politicians' power may increase banks’ ability to screen out lenders, researchers say
Low-income families suffer higher inflation rates, paper finds
The differences in prices occur in the same categories of goods
Big banks’ share prices more sensitive to rate moves – paper
Lower capital ratios diminish exposure to changes in the yield curve, says research
Bank of Mexico revises upwards its economic forecasts
Inflation is projected to return to the 3% target in 2018 and growth to be higher than expected, says governor
BoE authors outline machine learning framework
Paper offers guide to machine learning in central bank analysis, and sets out a few examples relevant to policy
Paper challenges Rey’s ideas on global financial cycle
Cerutti, Claessens and Rose contest idea that capital flows are mainly the result of common shocks or developments in the US
BIS payment stats to embrace non-banks and faster payments
New methodology acknowledges role fintech has played in reshaping payments landscape; contactless payment data to be included
ECB paper presents new measure for monitoring real estate vulnerability
Aggregated measure out-performs most models as predictor of past crises, authors say
Recent low US inflation figures likely to be revised – Dallas Fed vice-president
Data allows “nowcasting” of inflation, paper argues
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
Finnish paper investigates key factors in financial development
Data points to rule of law and economic development are key factors, paper argues
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
Ecuador’s central bank forecasts sustained recovery
Nation experienced two years of recession on falling oil prices, but stable commodity prices, fiscal austerity and stronger trade links with Europe expected to support growth
IMF’s Adrian sketches macro-financial model of term premium
Tobias Adrian outlines a new way of modelling financial cycles within a New Keynesian framework, which produces a good fit with empirical observations on the term structure
Oil prices feed through to core inflation – Fed paper
Research finds changes in the oil price have a small but statistically significant impact on core inflation
National Bank of Denmark sees "major challenges" for Greenland’s economy
Greenland is experiencing an economic boom, but needs to diversify its economy; central bank warns political independence may be a mistake
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
Book notes: The Limits of the Market, by Paul de Grauwe
De Grauwe has produced a concise analysis into how markets and governments react with one another; but his lack of familiarity with the history of economic thought is surprising
Lithuanian paper examines interplay between European housing and credit
Panel-like econometrics may give misleading results, authors warn
Goodhart and Pradhan: demographics will reverse ‘multi-decade’ trends
Ageing population is likely to put upward pressure on real interest rates and inflation, and push down inequality, economists say
Banks need to tailor data strategies to clients, paper says
Dutch customers are open to sharing their payments data to enhance security, but do not want banks to sell it on, research finds