Economics
BoE not to blame for gold standard-era crises in US – paper
Bank of England’s rate decisions between 1884 and 1913 were not responsible for “causing or aggravating” crises in the US, author finds
Neural network learns ‘universal model’ for stock-price moves
Relationships between order flow and price “are stable through time, and across stocks and sectors”
Intellectual property investment fuelling growth in Australia – Lowe
RBA governor says lack of growth in “tangible assets” is turning investment towards the information technology market
Yield curve inversion still tends to signal trouble ahead – Fed economists
The term spread has a “strikingly accurate record” for forecasting recessions, and this time looks to be no different, say researchers
Dudley goes against Trump’s protectionist line
New York Fed president criticises protectionism as Donald Trump steps up rhetoric; questions value of excessive reserves accumulation
NY Fed paper studies when government should issue safe assets
Model implies only under certain situations should the government issue new debt; changing inflation target might be superior
Tighter policy policy may increase financial instability, researcher says
Higher rates may pressure banks’ balance sheets and increase assets held by money market funds, says paper published by San Francisco Fed
Measuring Venezuela’s hyperinflation
Steve Hanke discusses how economists can make use of high-frequency exchange rate data to track rapid price movements in Venezuela
ECB paper models impact of monetary policy announcements
Model tries to “disentangle” impact of two kinds of information
Italian paper looks at eurozone firms' capital costs
Fall in borrowing costs in periphery due to balance sheet improvements, researchers find
Solving the owner-occupied housing puzzle
A group of researchers has outlined what they see as a better method of integrating owner-occupied housing into the CPI, as the EU’s statistical agency wrestles with the problem
High corporate debt harms Italy’s productivity, IMF research says
Policymakers should look at discouraging structural corporate debt, researchers say
Global uncertainty increases financial interconnections – paper
Researchers use a network approach to evaluate financial interconnectedness
Bank of Korea unveils changes to its DSGE model
The existing model’s accuracy was reduced following structural changes in the economy
Italian consumer lending more risk-priced post-2008 – paper
Institutions tightened lending to consumers based on household factors
UK figures reveal 1.47 million people out of work
While the employment rate has continued to rise, the rate of unemployment has increased by the sharpest level in almost five years
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon by using a shadow rate term structure model
Higher inflation in the US pushes up yields
The headline consumer price index rose by 2.1% year on year
Credit constraints hits smaller eurozone firms’ investment – Spanish paper
Researcher finds credit constraints have less impact on working capital and growth
Eurozone needs structural reforms to realign real exchange rates – Italian paper
Real exchange rate misalignments persist for longer in eurozone, researchers say
UK inflation refuses to budge from 3%
Despite a decline in oil price pressure, UK inflation remains above target; latest figures increase the likelihood of the Bank of England raising rates in May
Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research
San Francisco Fed article says weak recovery in the US due to long-running factors, and not the immediate impact of the global crisis
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter