Economics
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Raising expectations
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank embodies international co-operation and innovation – the spirit of modern China. Strict management, openness and transparency have won the bank wide recognition and acceptance, says Jin Liqun, the bank’s president
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
The IFF China Report 2018: Post-financial crisis – A decade on
The Global Financial Crisis sparked Group of 20 countries to introduce tough new regulations on financial institutions and instruments. Yet the architecture of the global monetary, economic and financial system has many flaws. What lessons can China…
Brexit will hit Irish economy hard, Banque de France paper finds
Researchers look at cost of undoing European Union’s single market
RBA paper offers new way to add housing sector to DSGE models
Authors find their model delivers “reasonable” forecast performance
BoE goes granular with data experiment
UK central bank announces successful data proof of concept looking to store, organise and combine data based on the XBRL standard
No one can win a trade war, says Benoît Cœuré
Senior ECB official says US growth could be cut by 2.5% by tariff hikes
Growth in the digital economy has scrambled statistics – IMF paper
Countries may have been understating GDP growth, while overstating inflation, IMF analysis reveals, as digital products skew prices
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bundesbank paper looks at cross-border cycles in six European economies
Equity prices and interest rates more strongly synchronised than real economic activity – researchers
High-frequency data helps capture ‘psychological subtlety’ – BoJ paper
Study of “tick-by-tick” data finds markets have become more sensitive to the central bank’s policy announcements
Israel’s Flug calls for higher-quality labour market
Bank of Israel governor says country is close to full employment but must do more to improve labour market conditions
IMF warns Tunisia over inflation, deficit and currency
Central bank may have to hike rates further, IMF executive board says
Yield curve can help improve forecasts – RBNZ economists
Yield curve information tends to improve forecasts of economic activity, researchers find
IMF unveils new data strategy
Fund’s first ever “overarching strategy” on data envisages new approach to gathering, processing and sharing statistics
BIS economists find frictions in banks’ dollar funding
Authors investigate wide divergence in the business models of European and Japanese banks
Latin American markets were hit by 2010 US ‘flash crash’, DNB paper finds
Fall was driven by equities markets’ interdependence, not contagion, researcher argues
Stock imbalances can stabilise or destabilise – BIS paper
Asymmetry implies burden of adjustment tends to fall on deficit countries
Denmark is entering a boom – central bank
The Nordic country is benefiting from the growth in export markets, including the US and eurozone
BIS’s da Silva defends DSGE modelling efforts
The models have not performed as badly as critics claim and new research efforts are creating fresh possibilities, says BIS’s deputy general manager
RBI paper finds complexity in exchange rate pass-through
Authors argue the standard view of exchange rates having a “linear and symmetric” impact on prices is flawed
Financial frictions key to DSGE performance – NY Fed paper
Post-crisis period was a harsh testing ground for structural models, but the New York Fed’s DSGE model was at least equal to private forecasts, researchers say
ECB’s open market operations often raise banks’ liquidity – paper
Asset “haircuts” imposed by ECB often smaller than those in repo markets – researchers