Economics
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
ECB’s sovereign bond purchases may increase volatility, DNB paper says
Researchers say their findings could have important lessons for “tapering” programmes
The IFF China Report 2018: The Bay Area Development
The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Great Bay Area represents an effort to co-ordinate development to create globally competitive city clusters at the start of the Maritime Silk Road in southern China. These efforts are focussed in particular on innovation,…
IMF unveils first vintage of macro-prudential data
Database is the first global source of information on macro-prudential institutions, indicating an overall tightening in policy in 2016
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Haldane envisages ‘iterative’ approach to advancing economics
Deductive and inductive approaches “need to share a broadly equal billing”, BoE chief economist says, setting out how the central bank has made use of big data
Emerging markets still taking on dollar debts, BIS data shows
Rapid growth in credit to emerging markets echoed by broader rises in global liquidity
Party politics may influence German banks’ bond holdings, ECB paper finds
Researchers examine effects of local elections on decisions by local savings banks
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
Bank of Lithuania improves data accessibility in new website
Redesign offers videos and infographics to explain key policies; audience has increased by 10%
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
China’s macroeconomy in the ‘new era’ of politics and power
Lou Jiwei, president of the National Council for Social Security Fund and former minister of finance of China, explores the three key aspects of China’s macroeconomic situation in the ‘new era’ of Chinese politics and power
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Claims on offshore centres at record high – BIS data
Overall cross-border claims “gained momentum” in Q4 2017
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
The IFF China Report 2018
Insight and opinion from China’s top leaders, policymakers and financiers
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
After the Congress – Interpreting China’s new development concept
As Xi Jinping Thought is enshrined in the Constitution, Justin Lin, IFF member and former chief economist at the World Bank, calls for far-reaching innovation in all sectors of industry and finance to attain the goal of national rejuvenation
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
The IFF China Report 2018: The Belt and Road Initiative
China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) now includes 71 countries, with trillions of dollars of investment allocated. Leading Chinese and international policymakers explain how BRI efforts are progressing. This section includes an inaugural…
The IFF China Report 2018: China’s opening-up and reform policy
The experiences of China’s opening-up and reform during the past 40 years, which includes a transition from an agricultural economy to one seeking to offer high-end manufacturing and services, offer valuable lessons to other nations seeking to pursue…
A route to economic growth – The Belt and Road Initiative 2018 survey
To mark the fifth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the IFF – in collaboration with Central Banking – conducted its inaugural Belt and Road Survey of central banks from more than 25 countries and regions. The survey examines BRI…