Economics
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Central bankers share vision for ‘business as usual’ big data
Panellists offer advice on how to build the infrastructure for good data governance
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
BoE paper models bank runs in general equilibrium
Daisuke Ikeda finds regulations must be comprehensive to prevent risk shifting
BIS authors document ‘significant’ shifts in CDS risks
Credit default swaps market has changed “markedly” since 2008, authors say
Some macro-prudential policies may increase income inequality – DNB paper
Researchers look at data from 69 countries from 2000–13
Good policy makes Phillips curve harder to identify – BoE’s Tenreyro
MPC member argues fears the Phillips curve has disappeared are “largely misplaced”
Banque de France paper sketches policy routes for post-crisis central banks
“New orthodoxy” would see unchanged policy goals, but more freedom to lower interest rates
Dudley says more effort needed in modelling financial factors
“We were nowhere. Now we’re probably at the first or second grade,” says outgoing New York Fed chief
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Trump appears to pre-signal strong jobs data
US jobs report shows large increase in jobs and further drop in unemployment
UK statistics authority disagrees with BoE on snow impact
ONS says snow had limited impact on Q1 GDP, contradicting the BoE’s account
Nominal exchange rates can be forecast on ‘back of a napkin’ - ECB paper
Flexible exchange rates in advanced countries have two regularities, researchers find
BoE paper studies ‘multiplex’ network model of derivatives market
Low liquidity buffers can lead to significant spillovers for some firms, authors warn
Housing inequality creates credit inequality – NY Fed’s Hirtle
Older people with less need of credit have seen the value of their collateral rise more
IMF releases world’s most comprehensive debt database
Data covers 190 countries and a wide range of instruments; Kenneth Rogoff calls the new database “really stunning”
ECB stresses protectionist risks in economic bulletin
US administration announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium in March
Researchers propose new method of measuring Chinese inflation
Bank of Finland paper says many current measures under-weight food and energy prices
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
RBA paper finds elusive interest rate-investment link
Authors present empirical evidence for inverse relationship between rates and investment
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices
Atlanta’s Bostic concerned by ‘proliferation of models’
Regional Fed chief says more needs to be done to understand how machine-learning algos could contribute to a major shock