Economics
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
There are better ways to solve China trade dispute – Atlanta Fed economist
It is “underappreciated” that the Chinese currency is devalued, Tao Zha says
Central banks must use “unconstrained” negative rates, Rogoff tells ECB
Policy-makers must ensure cash depreciates against electronic money, or face failure, Rogoff says
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
Borio and co-authors attack concept of natural interest rate
BIS paper sets out a model in which “monetary policy hysteresis” can do lasting damage to the economy
Machine learning can help spot bank distress – BoE paper
Use of confidential data helps catch distress early, and ML can cope with complexity, authors say
IMF paper tests conventional wisdom on economic and financial cycles
World cycles have not become stronger during globalisation period, researchers find
Fed can now keep rates on hold, senior official says
Recent cuts have provided greater assurance Fed will hit inflation target, Charles Evans says
IMF economist: central banks may have misdiagnosed secular slowdown
Lower neutral rates may have been caused by central banks lowering rates, researcher says
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
Book notes: Economics for the common good, by Jean Tirole
The book should be well received amid the recent rise in populism
Finnish paper looks at Chinese currency swap agreements
Bilateral swap agreements increase settlement of trade transactions in renminbi – researchers
BIS authors detail new data on non-bank exposures
Banks have highly concentrated exposures to non-financial counterparties, researchers say
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
BoE paper explores collateral’s impact on labour market
Collateral value affects hiring decisions by small businesses, authors find
Inflation models must pay more attention to globalisation – Brookings paper
Global factors more important for some inflation measures since 2008 financial crisis, researcher finds
RBI’s Das weighs up external economic threats
India’s external sector is resilient, but capital flows have been volatile and trade weak, governor says
Barbados launches new statistics hub
Central bank simplifies data publications for “man on the street” and standardises bank reporting
Economists use payments data to build high-speed indicator
Team says transaction-based metric gives quick insight into consumer spending
Bank of Israel proposes measures to stabilise social security system
Benefit payments set to rise faster than GDP in the coming decades, warns central bank
Central banks are ‘riders on the storm’, say Jordà and Taylor
Central banks control less than half the overall variation in interest rates, authors find
Book notes: Narrative economics, by Robert Shiller
The book is good fun to read, but some elements are a little disappointing
‘Non-salient fees’ matter for mortgage pricing – BoE paper
Many borrowers appear to be less sensitive to fees than to interest rates, and firms exploit this