Economics
Trump’s trade war is squeezing US profits – IMF paper
Retailers kept prices unchanged and exporters cut theirs, Gita Gopinath and co-authors find
Central banks increasingly embracing the cloud
Forms of cloud computing are becoming more prevalent, despite central banks’ caution
Big data in central banks: 2019 survey results
Many central banks are overhauling their data governance, which has facilitated a broadening in their use of big data. They are also turning to external specialists for help
Philly Fed paper studies impact of Argentina's default on firms
Firms would benefit from mechanisms to ease switching lenders, researchers find
Global credit to non-banks growing faster in Q2 – BIS figures
Latest global liquidity figures show rapid growth in lending to the non-bank sector
BoE’s Tenreyro comes to the defence of flexible exchange rates
Policy-maker challenges conventional wisdom in several areas of economics
Falling productivity and low interest rates may form vicious circle – BdF paper
Researchers use data on 17 advanced economies to investigate secular stagnation hypothesis
New IMF data sheds light on interwar instability
Instrument-level data highlights how the network structure of debts contributed to collapse
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Cross-border claims growing at fastest rate since crisis – BIS
Non-banks continue to see the fastest growth, latest international banking data shows
Inside the ECB’s upgraded multi-country model
ECB-Base sets the blueprint for a new semi-structural workhorse model of the eurozone
BdF paper uses professional forecasts to improve BVAR model
Authors use “entropic tilting and soft conditioning” to incorporate survey data into model
Bundesbank: Germany may have entered recession
Report says manufacturing output fell markedly in the third quarter, despite domestic resilience
BdF paper looks at digital currency and remuneration
Remuneration is key consideration for design of central bank-issued digital currencies, paper argues
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Large forex dealers are key to asset pricing – Bundesbank paper
Capital ratios of large forex dealers are important in explaining asset price movements, paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Interbank networks may be too decentralised – BoE paper
Model of how networks develop implies laissez-faire may not be optimum policy