Research/Economics
New NBER research sheds light on ‘cheapflation’
Savings from price discounts partially offset by price hikes for cheaper products
Furlough schemes may conceal slack in EU labour market – ECB research
The longer the pandemic continues, the more job reallocation will be needed, authors say
Lower public spending holding back Middle East and Central Asia
Efficient and targeted investments require comprehensive data, says IMF paper
Machine learning can produce better credit scores – BIS paper
Fintech firms may be better at predicting default rates, researchers find
Research proposes ‘Monk’ model of long-term monetary transmission
Equilibrium in standard models only affected by short rates, say Garriga, Kydland and Šustek
New IMF data sheds light on interwar instability
Instrument-level data highlights how the network structure of debts contributed to collapse
Government assets are just as important as deficits – IMF research
Borrowing costs are determined by structure of public assets
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional monetary policy; extra policy tool is necessary to overcome credit shocks
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
Local policy impact can be dispersed in currency unions – Bank of Spain research
Study analyses effect of large post-crisis fiscal stimulus implemented in Spain
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Import-intensive sectors see higher exchange rate pass-through
Changes in Colombian peso exchange rate against dollar have small effect on exports
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
Free trade agreement to boost growth in Africa – IMF research
Smaller economies are more likely to benefit from more open trade conditions in the continent
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say