Economics
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
Canada’s GDP revisions ‘raise questions over monetary policy’
However, experts disagree on whether central bank’s modelling was flawed and if it cut rates too quickly
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
The past and future of BIS economics
The monetary and economic department has become an influential force in central bank economics. Claudio Borio looks back over 37 years at the institution and Hyun Song Shin looks to the future
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Bailey: UK must stay open for business
BoE governor calls for bridges to be built with EU countries and others
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Lagarde warns of widening climate finance gap
“We must adapt and become more resilient” in a fair and equitable manner, says ECB president
Book notes: The road to freedom: economics and the good society, Joseph E Stiglitz
A stimulating amalgamation of previous ideas presenting the kind of economic system most conducive to decent society
Rate uncertainty means firms hire and invest less – BdF study
European companies hoard cash and reduce dividend payments when monetary stance is unclear
ECB study highlights firms’ exposure to property downturn
Analysis examines risks to various classes of investor from exposure to commercial real estate
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Global component of inflation surged in pandemic – research
Dallas Fed authors say international factors exert greater influence than they did pre-Covid
ECB could go below r* when setting policy, says Panetta
Bank of Italy governor says eurozone has to return to “normal way of doing monetary policy”
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments